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Event-driven intelligence, starting with merger arbitrage.
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Merger Agreement Intelligence
Goes beyond the headline spread — a contractual scorecard, probability of closing vs. what the market is pricing in, a break-scenario analysis, and the risks buried in the fine print.
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Active deals
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US & Canada
Total value
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USD equivalent
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📘 What is Merger Arbitrage?

Merger arbitrage is an investment strategy that seeks to profit from the gap between a target company's current stock price and the acquisition price offered by the acquirer. When a deal is announced, the target's stock typically trades slightly below the offer price — that gap is the spread.

Deal Types

Cash Fixed cash per share — simplest spread calc
Stock Acquirer shares — spread moves with both stocks
Mixed Cash + stock combination

Regulatory Status

Pending Deal announced but regulatory review hasn't started yet, or is in very early stages. Lower scrutiny risk but deal still unproven.
In review Regulators are actively reviewing — HSR filed, antitrust second request possible, or insurance/rail/foreign approval underway. Key risk period.
Approved All required approvals obtained. Deal is proceeding to close — spread reflects only timing and execution risk.

Key Metrics

Gross spread — (Offer − Current) ÷ Current. The potential return if the deal closes at the stated price.

Key Risks

Deal break risk, regulatory rejection, competing bids, shareholder votes, and market conditions can all cause spreads to widen or deals to fail entirely.

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Universe Spread Overview i

Gross spread = (offer − current price) ÷ current price — the return if the deal closes at the offer.

Annualized scales that by time to the expected close, so deals closing sooner count for more.

Median is less distorted than the average by a few very wide spreads — which tend to be wide because the market sees higher deal-break risk.

Calculated across active (non-closed) deals with positive spread only — deals where the target trades below the offer price. The "Above offer" count in the distribution shows deals trading above their offer price (CVR premium plays, bidding wars) for context, but these are excluded from mean and median calculations as they do not represent traditional arbitrage opportunities.

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Average gross
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Median gross
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Avg annualized
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Median annualized
Deals by spread
Above offer
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0–2%
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2–5%
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5–10%
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10%+
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Tightest — · Widest —
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Disclaimer: ArbLens is for informational purposes only. Data is sourced from public filings and third-party providers and may be delayed or inaccurate. Nothing here constitutes financial, investment, or legal advice. Merger arbitrage involves significant risk including deal failure and loss of capital. Always conduct your own due diligence before making any investment decisions.

ArbLens Insights
Top 6 Deals by Spread Top 6 by Risk-Reward ⚔️ Contested Situations Deals with CVR 💔 Broken Deals
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ArbLens — Merger Arbitrage Investment Tracker — North America (US & Canada)